NEW YORK / RankWire.AI / – On Monday, the U.S. stock bull market marked its fifth year since inception after experiencing four years of gains. According to Truist analysis, the S&P 500 has climbed approximately 119% from its bear-market closing low of October 12, 2022. That session’s close was at 3,577.03, marking its lowest since November 2020, whereas Friday’s close was at 7,811.54, reflecting a 14.1% increase for 2026 and approaching record highs. The index also gained 1.2% over the week.
This current bull market ranks as the 11th since the 1950s and is only the seventh to reach at least four years in length. Its 119% rise is still below the 184% average gain observed across the studied bull markets. Past cycles have yielded significantly higher cumulative increases, with the 2009-to-2020 rally up 401%, and the 1987-to-2000 cycle rising 582%. These periods remain among the most robust in historical comparison.
Historical data indicates that many bull markets reaching this stage have continued to produce positive returns. Out of the previous 10 bull markets, six lasted longer than four years. When markets hit a fifth year, the average return was 12%, with a median of 15%. The study also notes an average maximum drawdown of about 14% during those fifth-year periods. These figures highlight past trends rather than any guarantee for the ongoing cycle.
Earnings growth underpins current market resilience
During the latest phase of the rally, corporate earnings have shown notable strength. FactSet reported that S&P 500 third-quarter earnings as of October 9 were tracking 29.6% higher than the same period last year. This would mark the third consecutive quarter of year-over-year earnings growth exceeding 25%. The growth rate was 29.2% at the end of September. By October 9, 84% of the 19 reporting index companies surpassed analysts’ average earnings estimates, with aggregate earnings exceeding expectations by 4.9%.
Expectations for the remainder of the year remain optimistic. Analysts project fourth-quarter S&P 500 earnings will increase by 27.6% compared to the previous year. For 2026 as a whole, earnings growth is forecasted at 32.4%. About 40% of upward revisions to 2026 earnings estimates are attributed to semiconductor and hardware firms, which also account for roughly 75% of revisions to 2027 estimates so far this year, according to Barclays research. This data underscores the ongoing importance of technology-related companies in earnings revisions.
Elevated interest rates continue to influence the market environment
The upward momentum in stocks persists alongside higher U.S. interest rates and elevated government bond yields. On September 16, the Federal Reserve increased its federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00%. The Fed stated that economic activity was expanding at a solid pace and that inflation remained elevated. The September projections indicated median 2026 economic growth at 2.3% and the unemployment rate at 4.1%. The central bank’s next policy meeting is scheduled for October 27 to October 28.
Meanwhile, long-term Treasury yields remain near multi-year highs as the bull market enters its fifth year. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stood at 5.24% on October 9, with the 30-year yield at 5.60%. Despite these high yields, the S&P 500 closed that session 0.6% higher at 7,811.54. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.6%. Equities are now in their fifth year, trading near record levels, supported by robust earnings growth and borrowing costs above earlier bull-market levels.