NEW YORK / RankWire.AI / – U.S. consumer confidence reached its lowest point since April 2014 during September, continuing a three-month downward trend in household sentiment. According to The Conference Board, its Consumer Confidence Index fell by 6.7 points to 81.9. The August figure was revised downward from previous estimates to 88.6. Data collected from September 1 to September 23 formed the basis of the survey. Both current condition assessments and expectations for the upcoming six months showed weakening trends within the month.
The Present Situation Index declined 7.9 points, landing at 109.3 and indicating a less optimistic view of business and labor markets. The Expectations Index also decreased by 5.9 points to 63.6, marking its third consecutive monthly drop. This index gauges consumer outlook on income, business conditions, and employment prospects over the next half-year. The declines in July and August preceded the September drop. Together, these two measures contributed to pushing the overall confidence index further below the levels seen earlier this year.
Data from the Conference Board survey reveals a noticeable shift in perceptions of current business conditions. About 18.5% of consumers described conditions as good, slightly down from 18.8% in August. Conversely, those perceiving conditions as bad increased to 20.4% from 17.3%. Labor market opinions also weakened, with 23.6% stating jobs were plentiful—down from 24.5%—and 21.9% indicating jobs were hard to find, up from 20.3%.
Inflation expectations climb amid sustained fuel prices
In September, consumers also indicated higher inflation expectations. The average 12-month inflation outlook increased by 0.3 percentage points to 6.1%, while the median rose to 5.1%. Federal data showed that consumer prices grew 3.4% in August from a year prior. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that gasoline prices went up 3.9% during August. AAA’s latest data on September 29 revealed a national average of about $4.46 per gallon for regular gasoline.
Plans for spending exhibited restraint across various categories. On a six-month moving average, intentions to purchase vehicles and homes both slightly declined in September. Expected expenditure on services—such as hotels, movies, air travel, and amusement parks—also fell again. However, vacation plans remained robust, with 42.6% of consumers planning a trip within the next six months. That percentage increased by 0.5 point from August, primarily driven by domestic travel.
Expectations for employment and income deteriorate
Outlook on business conditions, employment, and income prospects also weakened. Only 15.9% of consumers anticipated improvements in business conditions, down from 17.0% in August. Meanwhile, 25.4% expected a worsening environment, up from 23.3%. Regarding jobs, 14.0% expected more opportunities, while 28.4% foresaw fewer available positions. Income expectations also softened, with 17.9% expecting gains and 15.4% predicting declines over the coming six months.
The survey further revealed broader financial pressures facing households. Net perceptions of current family finances turned negative for only the second time since this measure began four years ago. Confidence levels declined across nearly all age and income groups, based on a six-month moving average. Toluna conducts this online monthly survey for The Conference Board, with September’s preliminary results closing on September 23. The next Consumer Confidence Index release is scheduled for October 27.